Monday, February 27, 2006

Optimism on the Doha Deadline Day

It is interesting that, in this article Optimism on Doha deadline day, trade analysts are saying that developed countries will need the concession of allowing their corporations into foreign markets of utility and energy in order for them to allow the agriculture tariff reductions that the developing countries need so badly.

 

It looks as if an effective way to get around protectionism is increase complex interdependence.

DPW takeover of P&O

My first impressions of the DPW takeover of P&O conflicted with my interpretation of what GWB stated in the 2004 elections regarding terrorism as being our #1 priority. This was validated in the FT article Bush trips up trying to balance security fears with free trade.

 

This continues to make headlines (did they misspell February):

13 Febuary 2006

DP World to acquire P&O

We are delighted to announce that the shareholders of P&O have approved the sale of shares to DP World. At an EGM held in London this afternoon, the shareholders voted over 99% in favour of the DP World acquisition. This means that the process of transferring ownership can now begin, and we expect for this to be confirmed by the court on 2nd March 2006.

Sunday, February 19, 2006

Fresh Fish Rugger

Just came from the pitch; my first game with the Thunderbirds. It was
pretty much like I remember the sport; lots of running and guys that
are stronger than me. Besides forgetting my mouth gaurd I came
prepared i.e. I didn't eat before the game. The alumni network is
strong. One of the quotes on the rugby discussion board reminds us
that the school projects are temporary but the friendships developed
during play will last a lifetime.

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

A couple of Socialist ideologies

Wake up to old-fashioned power of new oligopolies
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/e4620e70-9cfd-11da-8762-0000779e2340.html

If you are a large company that is experiencing a lot of competition
then you may not be part of an oligopoly. If your company is very
broad and/or are one of only a few competitors, then you might be part
of one. This article points out the "disproportionately high profits"
that members of a typical oligopoly experience. U.S. business policies
have allowed corporations to become extremely broad in scope.

For example, the article goes on to say… "Mittal Steel's play for
Arcelor may not be a global-scale problem, as the two companies
combined account for only 10 per cent of the world steel market. But
what of the fact that three companies account for 75 per cent of
global iron ore production?"

Global terror threat prompts request for record $439bn in military
funding seems to make the president's plea for healthcare spending
accounts reasonable. However, this means for utilizing pre-tax dollars
for medical expenses do nothing to help the lower classes.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/c19243cc-977d-11da-82b7-0000779e2340.html

Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Wikis, Chats, VoIP and online collaboration

I have been using Yahoo IM (xgreekloverx@yahoo.com) to move video and
GoogleTalk (matthew.horvat@gmail.com) for the voice. This combination
seems to be the best for seamless communication. Skype is also a
method, but the voice seems odd at times.

For Wikis I use PBwiki which makes creating a wiki as easy as making a
peanut butter sandwich. The formatting seems to work better than
others that I have tried. This is a great tool for mobile development
or collaboration.

Sunday, February 12, 2006

G8 energy focus threatens Gazprom monopoly

Moscow meeting of the G8 focused on transparency between oil consumers and producers. The topic took 2 of the 7 hours of the meeting. Increased fiscal transparency is needed so as to encourage investment and curb corruption (paragraph 4) as well as enhance public support for the reform process in general, which were all goals of the Statement of the Government of the Russian Federation and Central Bank of Russia on Economic Policies July 13, 1999

Monday, February 06, 2006

Six Sigma, Lean and DFSS

I don’t think that many of us would know about 6s if it weren’t for the recognizing that 80% of our GDP comes from service organizations AND the similarity of a manufacturing process with a business process. Originally, the main focus of 6s was eliminating defects as defined by customers (it moved onto cost reduction and increasing value, I will get to that). So, once we have a customer’s requirement, we recognize the variation (defects) that hinders our ability to reliably deliver high-quality services. We then use analytical tools to break down and specify where this inefficiency is coming from. Then can make a decision based upon data, not just a hunch (ie. tweaking the machine).

There are a lot of statistical tools available to determine where in the process that the variation is coming from (Design of Experiments, Statistical Process Control, Regression, and to a lesser extent simulation). But don’t get caught up in the technical aspects. Just think of your process as a flow of information/commitments/paperwork/invoices/contracts/communications and see what it is that caused one project to get done in an hour, and a similar project to get done in a week. Do, however, enlist a Master Black Belt or a Black Belt to lead the project.

It has been stated that Lean is an excellent combination to 6s. In service applications, the cost related to work that adds no value in your customers’ eyes, is higher than in manufacturing, in both percentage and in absolute dollars. Queue time kills satisfaction. Lean focuses at removing the waste in the process using value stream maps and other lightly analytical tools.

The evolution of 6s began at Motorola (the focus was on defect reduction). GE championed it in the late 90s (focus on cost reduction). DuPont is the newest player in the spotlight and is focusing its improvement on value as viewed by the customer.

For a successful recipe of 6s there are a couple of things that your organization is going to need to do. This is going to have to be sponsored by the top management. There has to be a supporting infrastructure in place or at least the recognition of the need of one (that would be a formal project selection process). You are going to have to put your best people on these projects. There needs to be in house pilot projects (major ones with impact) and the results need to be tied directly to finances (why TQM is generally considered a failure). You will need to establish performance metrics to the projects and the players in the projects, and you will need to tie these evaluations to payments to the employees. After all, we measure what we value (and most frequently we only measure employee turn over rate).

The sustenance of executing a 6s project is the DMAIC process; Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control (similar to the Shewhart Cycle, or PDSA - Plan Do Study Act). This is a constant on every project. First we define the project, understand our Measuring devices (and verify that the variability is not coming from the gauges) and get the data, then we Analyze the data and understand the variability, next is to Improve the process (the only time in the entire 6s process where it is ok to modify the process), then we Control (which is to say that we make the change long term).

The applications are only as narrow as what is slated for improvement. 6s can be used to, with a very high degree of reliability, consistently take the trash out, improve your golf game, and reduce your commute home. But that is not really one of my goals so the project would be trashed (through the formal selection process of value in the eyes of the customer). Do you understand now that 6s is simply a business process improvement methodology (and not holistic unless combined with lean because lean addresses waste removal and not variation reduction)?

 

Curious as to how 6 Sigma got its name? Standard deviation is a measure of variability. In the bell curve 99.7% of the data are within 3 standard deviations of the average. If a process has 100 steps and every step is 99.7% reliable, we still have a 16% failure rate. If the variability of the process is reduced so much so that the variability is within 6 standard deviations from the average where our specification limits are we only have 3.4 parts per million defective. The Greek letter sigma is commonly used as notation for standard deviation. Therefore, the only way to increase the value of the customers is to lower their expectations, or to tighten our reliability.


One more thing for the advanced; Design for Six Sigma (DFSS). There is only so much blood that can be wrung out of a turnip; and eventually we are going to need to rethink our business process (rather than starting with what we have and improving it). Then you will have the customer in focus from the start!

 

Sunday, February 05, 2006

G20

The G-20 has a focus on transparency of policy, perhaps to expose
corruption. I don't see anything in this organization that is not
nationalist or capitalist.

-- Statisticians never say anything for certain

Iran, Nukes, Islam and Cartoons

Iran warns West ‘we don’t need you but you need us’
Seems as if Iran’s nuclear motivation has moved from energy to weapons. The U.S. is on two sides of Iran, with the other semi (at best) stable environments of Pakistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. But Turkey is there, and I am sure that with their recent plees of joining the EU, they will provide stability to the region.

I don’t know what is going to happen with Iran, but with the recent speech from the U.S. President it sounds like Iran is on the radar. Tehran seems to have validity in their wishes of weaponry because they seemed to be surrounded with it, but why? I guess that a topic for another class, but what a discussion.

Danish consulate in Beirut burnt over cartoons
I wonder if the authors of the cartoons realized that Islam forbids any depiction of Mohammed. Now, protestors have burned the Danish consulate in Beirut, the Danish and Norwegian embassies in Damascus and to a lesser extent the French and Swedish embassy. I can’t say that the same reaction would not have happened if the roles were reversed; do you recall all of the racial profiling that has and is happening in the U.S. in relation to 9/11? The religious war goes on… another example of a poor platform for discussion. I wonder if a more benefitual enforcement purpose for a ‘globo-cop’ would be a communication platform rather than a market/state enforcement that is so many times discussed.